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Argentina · exposure to the region
What reaches Argentina, and what it sends
Coming in · change in the odds of crisis by 2030 (baseline 57%), regional model with links on
Oil falls 40%
oil revenue
+3.0 ± 0.5
Global sell-off
borrowing cost +2.31 pts
+2.5 ± 0.7
China slows
oil and exports
+0.8 ± 0.3
Brazil quietly defaults
lenders, +0.21 pts
no clear change
Copper falls 35%
no link
no clear change
Venezuela sanctions snap back
no link
no clear change
US recession
no link
no clear change
Going out
Missed bond payment
+0.18 pts
to every neighbour’s borrowing cost the next quarter (2% of its own +9 jump; ×5 in the stress case)
Currency moves with
No one: a managed crawling band
Shares the oil price with
Mexico · Colombia · Venezuela