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Mexico · exposure to the region
What reaches Mexico, and what it sends
Coming in · change in the odds of debt > 70% of GDP by 2030 (baseline 17.2%), regional model with links on
Oil falls 40%
oil revenue
+17.6 ± 1.3
Global sell-off
borrowing cost +2.15 pts
+6.4 ± 0.8
China slows
oil and exports
+6.1 ± 0.8
US recession
sales to the US
+5.4 ± 0.7
Brazil quietly defaults
lenders, +0.21 pts
+0.8 ± 0.3
Argentina defaults
lenders, +0.11 pts
no clear change
Copper falls 35%
no link
no clear change
Venezuela sanctions snap back
no link
no clear change
Going out
Pemex rescue or losing investment grade
+0.03 pts
to every neighbour’s borrowing cost the next quarter (2% of its own +1.5 jump; ×5 in the stress case)
Currency moves with
Brazil 0.64 · Colombia 0.54 · Chile 0.40
Shares the oil price with
Colombia · Argentina · Venezuela