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Brazil · exposure to the region
What reaches Brazil, and what it sends
Coming in · change in the odds of quiet default by 2030 (baseline 5.7%), regional model with links on
China slows
export prices
+0.6 ± 0.3
US recession
borrowing cost +0.12 pts
+0.4 ± 0.2
Argentina defaults
lenders, +0.11 pts
no clear change
Venezuela sanctions snap back
no link
no clear change
Oil falls 40%
no link
no clear change
Copper falls 35%
no link
no clear change
Global sell-off
borrowing cost +2.17 pts
no clear change
Going out
Quiet default
+0.3 pts
to every neighbour’s borrowing cost the next quarter (2% of its own +15 jump; ×5 in the stress case)
Currency moves with
Mexico 0.64 · Colombia 0.62 · Chile 0.51
Commodity link
Export prices through China, not oil